Democrats lead in US midterm polls as voting day approaches

With two days left before the United States midterm elections, national polls show the Democratic Party maintaining a lead over the Republicans.

The latest RealClearPolling average puts Democrats at 51.5 percent and Republicans at 43.1 percent. A THP/MM survey conducted on 28‑29 October recorded a 54 percent to 41 percent advantage for Democrats, while an Emerson College poll from 24‑26 October showed a ten‑point lead.

Key Senate contests remain tightly fought. In Kansas, a Washington Post‑Schar School poll gave Democrat Adam Hamilton a 52 percent to 43 percent edge over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, whereas an Emerson College poll indicated a narrower 50 percent to 47 percent margin.

Republican strategist Doug Heye questioned the reliability of some polls, citing past discrepancies such as the Des Moines Register poll before the 2024 presidential election. He warned that Republican respondents may be less willing to answer pollsters, potentially skewing results.

Both parties are centring their final campaign messages on the cost‑of‑living crisis, heightened by the US‑Israel war on Iran. Democrats are stressing affordability, while former President Donald Trump is holding telephone rallies for Republican candidates. Republican strategist Heye said the party has yet to present a convincing economic message to voters.

Political analyst Natalie Jackson noted that public dissatisfaction with the president and the economy is favouring Democrats, but cautioned that polling errors could still affect close Senate races.

Source: Al Jazeera. Photo: Edmond Dantès / Pexels.