Deloitte warns Government could miss 2030 housing target by up to 136,000 homes

The Government is forecast to miss its 2030 housing target of 300,000 new homes by between 123,400 and 136,100 homes, a Deloitte report has found.

The report notes that from July to September, 10,154 new homes were completed, bringing the total for the first nine months of the year to 26,833 dwellings – a 10.6% rise on the previous year. Deloitte’s latest Crane Survey estimates around 40,000 homes will be completed in 2024, but warns that the rate of planning‑permission approvals is lagging.

Over the past five years, almost 182,130 planning permissions have been granted, yet Central Bank data for 2017‑2020 shows that 25‑32% of those permissions lapse without construction. Applying that lapse rate produces the projected shortfall of 123,400‑136,100 homes.

Deloitte’s chief economist Kate English said the next 12‑18 months are critical to avoid a substantial housing shortfall by 2030. She highlighted that the 2024 development‑levy waiver, which is due to expire this year, has boosted completions, and that Section 28 zoning guidelines are intended to improve the planning pipeline, provided rezoned land remains viable.

The report also flagged challenges in the student accommodation sector, with only 365 purpose‑built student accommodation (PBSA) bedspaces completed in 2025, down from almost 900 in 2024 and far below the ten‑year average of 1,620. Hotel construction remains strong, with 2,080 rooms expected to open in 2024 and 3,540 rooms under construction as of September, 72% of new hotel permissions being in Dublin.

Source: Irish Examiner. Photo: Luciann Photography / Pexels.