US House swing districts shrink as gerrymandering reshapes seats

The number of politically competitive U.S. House seats has fallen sharply, with the latest redistricting in North Carolina turning a former swing district into a safe Republican seat.

In the 2022 election, Democrat Wiley Nickel won North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District by roughly 9,000 votes running as a moderate. Two years later, Republican Brad Knott was elected with a margin of more than 70,000 votes after the Republican‑controlled legislature redrew the district into an hour‑glass shape that removed Democratic voters in Raleigh and added rural counties up to the Virginia border.

According to analysis, swing seats – defined as districts where a presidential candidate previously won by five percentage points or fewer – have dropped from 45 to 37 in the past year. In 1964 there were 96 such seats, showing a long‑term decline in competitiveness.

Unite America calculated that 87 % of the representatives elected to the House in 2024 were chosen by just 7 % of the electorate, highlighting the growing influence of safe‑seat primaries. The organisation’s executive director warned that the 2024 election could produce “the least competitive… and least representative Congress of our lifetimes.”

Both major parties are adjusting campaign strategies, with Democrats targeting traditionally Republican areas amid concerns over the war in Iran and high living costs, while Republicans argue the reduced number of swing districts limits Democratic gains.

Source: ABC News. Photo: Thuan Vo / Pexels.